Back in the fall of 2022, I wrote a couple of columns about the employment challenges that existed before Covid, challenges that grew exponentially during and after the pandemic.

We all remember those times: the lockdowns due to the pandemic, the free flow of stimulus money, and the necessary concessions employers had to make brought new leverage to the average employee, who could almost dictate the terms of their employment. As I wrote previously, we witnessed the “Great Resignation,” a term that marks the number of people who just quit and dropped out of the employment market, and even the subsequent “Quiet Quitting” movement that swept America’s employers and caused yet another layer of disruption to American businesses. But I went on to say that despite the predictions of a recession (which never happened), employers began tightening their belts, and many Great Resigners and Quiet Quitters found themselves on park benches without a job.

My point at the time was that employment leverage was swinging back in favor of employers, leaving employees with less ability to dictate terms and compensation. Today, we face yet another further swing in the employment pendulum towards the bosses, and it has nothing to do with the state of the economy. A new and far more powerful tailwind is behind the employment picture that did not even exist in 2022.

A.I. Yes, this almost new technological advance has turned the American employment picture on its ear, and it is the former Great Resigners and Quiet Quitters who face the most severe impact: the white-collar worker. As has been reported in the popular business press, December’s jobs reports were the latest ominous sign in an era of big corporate layoff announcements, and chief executives are warning that artificial intelligence will replace workers. The overall unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6 percent. Hiring in many industries that employ white-collar workers has softened this year, while the unemployment rate for college-educated workers has drifted higher.

Fears about the job market are contributing to widespread pessimism about the economy. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment is near historic lows, and many Americans are buckling under almost five years of persistent inflation. College-educated workers who were once insulated from economic concerns aren’t anymore.

Just a few years ago, these workers were getting promotions and raises left and right. Now they are hanging onto their jobs for dear life, spooked by high-profile layoff announcements, the rise of artificial intelligence, and an unforgiving job market for the unemployed. Americans with bachelor’s degrees or higher put the average probability of losing their jobs in the next year at 15 percent, up from 11 percent three years ago. Workers in this group now think losing a job is more likely than those with less education do, a striking reversal from the past.

There is no firm definition of white-collar employee in government data. The term broadly applies to people who work in offices and have higher education, such as a bachelor’s degree or some college. In recent decades, hiring in management and professional jobs has rapidly outpaced other categories. By some important measures, college-educated workers are doing just fine. The unemployment rate for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher stands at a relatively low 2.9 percent, though that is up from 2.5 percent a year earlier.

Still, many are starting to feel a paradigm shift. Right after the pandemic, many companies couldn’t hire enough white-collar workers, partly because they wanted to keep up with the surge in demand that came in Covid’s wake. In recent months, however, several Fortune 500 companies announced cuts to white-collar roles. Some companies overhired and now have to correct for that, while others are holding back on hiring as they try to navigate the White House’s new tariff policies and funding cuts. And top executives are warning artificial intelligence could make the situation even worse. Earlier this year, Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley said the technology will replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S.

For the foreseeable future, the employments odds will fall in favor of the house.