June 2023

June 2023
Chart:

Summary:
In the last quarter, I have noted that the potential banking crisis is in the rear-view mirror and was a Chicken Little moment, coupled with rapidly decelerating inflation. My previous prediction that inflation could hit close to the Fed’s target by late 2024 may even be sooner than that. In my last narrative, I challenged Jay Powell and the Fed to balance his inflation fight against the tumult that higher interest rates have brought, and now with the first pause in this current inflation-fighting cycle, it appears they have heeded the call.
To summarize the longer view, I remain convinced in what I have said before: when interest rates stabilize and inflation is tamed, possibly as early as sometime next year, get ready for another broad economic expansion, and the boom times it will bring.