I am as guilty as anyone when it comes to studying new housing start statistics; like most of us, I look at single family home starts, and often consider that metric the benchmark by which the health of the total new home market is measured.
But I had an eye-opening experience recently when I sat in on a presentation by the National Multifamily Housing Council at NRMCA’s recent ConcreteWorks conference and trade show in Dallas. The presentation was based on a new study they commissioned and which published in May. It is insightful, and most importantly highlights some of the economics and metrics of the apartment housing market that have ballooned since I studied them last. It also pointed to some of the demand metrics being projected for 2030 as households continue to form, particularly in the expanding economy we expect for the next few years. Take a look at a few of the stats:
- There are 38.8 million apartment residents occupying 20.4 million apartment homes
- Apartments and their residents contribute more than $3.5 billion to the economy every day, or $1.3 trillion annually
- 12.3 million jobs are supported by the apartment home industry
But the most telling aspect of the presentation was the estimate that 4.6 million new apartment homes will be required by 2030, just 12 short years away. This is driven entirely by population growth, both organic and immigrant, which adds 4 net new people every minute, or 6,107 people per day, according to the report. And by 2030, our population will have grown to 357 million people, up from 325 million at the end of 2016. The US is expected to have 141 million households by 2030, which is a 22% growth rate based on 118 million households at the end of 2016. But the population is only growing by 9.8% during that same period, therefore reflecting further acceleration in household size declines as Baby Boomers age and find themselves in single person households.
The report sheds significant light on the future of the apartment home market over the next dozen years; you can find it here. While concrete intensities are not as great per apartment home unit compared to single family detached housing, it is nonetheless an important factor in the overall new home market and is a key driver in ready mixed concrete volumes for the foreseeable future.